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[翻译字幕]Agriculture Report - Worrie 本站原创 更新时间: 2012-09-11         

农业报道 - 粮食价格上涨的担忧可能缓解

This is the VOA Special English Agriculture Report.

这里是美国之音慢速英语农业报道。

A United Nations report says world food prices stayed the same in August. Prices were unchanged after rising sharply in July.

联合国一份报告称,8月份世界粮食价格保持不变。7月份大幅上涨后,8月份粮价基本持平。

A summer of drought in the United States and Russia has reduced expectations for corn and wheat supplies. As a result, a measure of food prices by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization rose six percent in July. But FAO economist Concepcion Calpe says the expected reductions did not get any worse in August.

美国和俄罗斯夏季的干旱使玉米和小麦的供应预期减小。因此,联合国粮农组织的食品价格指数7月份上涨了6%。但粮农组织经济学家康塞普西翁·卡尔佩(Concepcion Calpe)表示,预期的减少在8月份并没有继续恶化。

CONCEPCION CALPE: "We're not in a bad situation, or as bad situation as we were last month because the prospects are not worsening further. And this is already good news."

卡尔佩:“现在的情况还好,或者说不像上个月那么差。因为形势没有进一步恶化,而这就是好消息。”

Ms. Calpe says the FAO price index remains about ten percent below its highest level, reached in February twenty-eleven. But prices are still twice as high as they were ten years ago.

卡尔佩表示,粮农组织价格指数维持在比2011年最高水平低10%左右。但价格仍比十年前高一倍。

Demand remains high for food commodities like maize and wheat. The U.N. estimates that more cereal crops will be consumed this year than will be produced. That means markets will have to use some of the supplies that have been kept in reserve. Concepcion Calpe says those reserves have been low for several years.

玉米和小麦等食品类商品的需求仍然很大。据联合国估计,今年消耗的谷类作物会超出生产的谷类作物。这意味着市场将不得不动用一些储备物资。卡尔佩说,储备多年来一直都很低。

CONCEPCION CALPE: "And therefore we are very much susceptible to very quick changes because there is very little buffer on which to rely to protect ourselves should there be another bad news on the production front."

卡尔佩:“因此我们会对(粮食价格的)快速变化变得非常敏感,因为我们借以保护自己的缓冲很少。这在粮食生产方面是另一个坏消息。”
 

Demand remains high for food commodities like maize

She says there will be ups and downs in prices until production meets the level of demand. Still, many experts do not expect a repeat of the crisis of two thousand seven and two thousand eight. Prices jumped, playing a part in civil unrest in several countries.

她说,价格会起起伏伏,直到粮食生产满足需求。尽管如此,许多专家并不认为2007年和2008年的危机会重演。物价暴涨在一些国家的内乱中也起到了作用。

For one thing, these experts point out that energy prices are lower now. That means producing and transporting food is not as costly. And Gary Ellerts at the United States Agency for International Development says this year's bad weather has not affected another important crop: rice. Mr. Eilerts is head of the agency's Famine Early Warning System.

这些专家指出原因之一是目前能源价格较低,这意味着生产和运输食品没那么昂贵。美国国际开发署的加里·埃勒(Gary Ellerts)表示,今年的恶劣天气没有影响到另一种重要作物:水稻。埃勒先生是该机构饥荒早期预警系统的负责人。

GARY EILERTS: "Rice is very calm, very nice. Prices are not volatile. There's a large supply. And so, countries that depend on that, that were hurt a great deal in two thousand eight, are not being touched right now."

埃勒:“水稻价格非常平稳没有波动,供应充足。因此那些在2008年受到极大损害的依赖水稻的国家当前没有受到影响。”

However, economist Lourdes Adriano at the Asian Development Bank says prices could increase if India stops exporting rice because of a drought.

然而,亚洲开发银行的经济学家卢尔德·阿德里亚诺(Lourdes Adriano)表示,如果印度因为干旱停止出口大米,价格就会上涨。

LOURDES ADRIANO: "If we have a severe monsoon in India and it starts banning again the export of rice, then we will have a major problem. Because as you know, global rice trade is very thin. There are very, very few major exporters."

阿德里亚诺:“如果印度遭遇严重季风并开始再次禁止出口大米,那么我们就会遇到大麻烦。因为你知道,全球大米贸易非常薄弱,大米主要出口国非常少。”

Prices jumped when India banned rice exports in two thousand eight during the food inflation crisis.

2008年食品通胀危机期间,印度禁止大米出口后价格暴涨。

And that's the VOA Special English Agriculture Report. I'm Jim Tedder.
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Contributing: Steve Baragona and Ron Corben