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[翻译]AS IT IS - Experts Divided on What Trump Policies Mean for the Economy

来源:慢速英语   时间:2017-02-27 09:06:15

Despite rising stock prices, some experts remain concerned that economic proposals from the campaign of President Donald Trump will hurt the economy.

尽管股价上涨,一些专家还是担心川普总统在竞选活动中提出的一些经济建议会损害经济。

Last year, some economists predicted large decreases in financial markets, reduced hiring and an increased risk of a recession.

去年,一些经济学家预测金融市场会大幅下滑、招聘人数减少以及经济衰退风险增加。

However, stock market measures have reached record high levels in the month since Trump took office as the 45th president of the United States. Employment numbers have met expectations and consumer confidence has remained strong.

然而,自从川普就任美国第45任总统以来,股票指数已经刷新历史最高水平。就业人数也满足预期,消费者信心依然强劲。

VOA spoke with economist Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, a company that provides research of financial markets. Zandi supported the economic proposals of Hillary Clinton’s campaign. And he remains concerned that economic measures proposed by the Trump administration will hurt the economy.

美国之音采访了提供金融市场研究的穆迪分析公司的经济学家马克·赞迪(Mark Zandi)。赞迪支持希拉里在竞选活动中提出的经济建议。而且他还是担心川普政府提出的经济措施会损害经济。

“If Mr. Trump got precisely what he wanted, the policy proposals that he had put forward, what would happen to the economy? And the answer is, the economy would go into a deep recession,” he said.

他说,“如果川普总统在他提出的政策提案上得偿所愿,会对经济产生什么影响?答案就是,经济将会陷入严重衰退。”

Zandi told VOA that he has not changed his position from last year. The economist noted that as president, Trump has not yet enacted any policies that he promised during the campaign.

赞迪对美国之音表示,他没有改变自己去年的立场。这位经济学家指出,作为总统,川普尚未颁布他在竞训期间承诺的任何政策。

“What he wanted was 11 million undocumented workers to leave the country. What he wanted was a 45 percent tariff on China, 35 percent on Mexico. What he wanted was tax cuts and government spending increases that would increase the budget deficit by $10 trillion over 10 years. So if that is what he got, that would lead to a recession,” Zandi said.

赞迪表示,“川普希望1100万无证移民雇员离开美国,川普想要对中国征收45%的关税,对墨西哥征收35%的关税。川普希望减税以及增加政府支出,这会让预算赤字在10年内增加10万亿美元。所以如果这些让他得偿所愿,那么就会导致衰退。”

Others, however, say the increase in stock prices shows that investors are optimistic about the future. They say many people believe that tax reductions on businesses and fewer regulations will lead to higher profits.

然而其他人则表示,股价上涨表明投资者对未来持乐观态度。他们说,很多人认为对企业减税以及减少监管将会带来更高的利润。

Gus Faucher is an economist with the bank PNC. He says investors are looking to tax cuts that will increase business profits, which is good for stock prices. That, he says, has lifted stock prices recently.

格斯·法切尔(Gus Faucher)是PNC银行的一名经济学家。他说,投资者期望出台可以增加企业利润的减税政策,这对股价有利。他说,最近这已经提振了股价。

Investors will be disappointed, Faucher says, if Trump does not propose clear policies to increase growth. Still, he says the economic outlook is better than it was a few months ago.

法切尔表示,如果川普总统不提出明确政策刺激增长,投资者就会失望。不过他说经济前景比几个月前有所好转。

Other economists say Trump’s positions on taxing imports and trade disputes present a risk to the world economy.

其他经济学家表示,川普在进口税以及贸易纠纷上的立场对世界经济构成了风险。

Trump already has rejected the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement with 12 Pacific nations. He also has said he wants to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. Critics of the deal say it has cost America jobs.

川普已经否决了同12个太平洋国家签订的跨太平洋伙伴关系自由贸易协定。他还表示想要重新谈判北美自由贸易协定。该协定的批评者认为它损害了美国的就业。

Mark Zandi, however, expressed concern that the U.S. is pulling back from the world economy, which has provided a lot for the American people.

然而赞迪对美国正在退出让美国人民受益良多的世界经济表示担忧。

“The United States is at the center of the global economy. It’s taken hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and brought them into the middle class. Think about Eastern Europe, think about China and Asia,” he said.

他说,“美国是全球经济的中心。它使得数亿人摆脱贫困进入中产阶级。想想东欧、中国和亚洲。”

Americans, Zandi said, have been greatly helped by the less costly goods that result from free trade. And he warns, “If we pull back on globalization, the world suffers and we will also suffer.”

赞迪说,美国人一直极大地受益于自由贸易带来的廉价产品。他警告说,“如果我们收紧全球化,世界就会伤到伤害,我们也会受到伤害。”

Republicans control both houses of Congress and the White House. Zandi expects that Congress will approve many of Trump’s policy proposals although the early days of the administration have been difficult.

共和党人控制了国会和白宫。赞迪预计国会将会批准川普的很多政策提案,尽管政府初期颇为艰难。

Some economists, however, question whether conservative Republicans will approve tax cuts without knowing how they will be paid for.

然而一些经济学家质疑保守的共和党人是否会在不知道代价几何的情况下批准减税。

Along with major tax cuts for businesses, Trump has proposed heavy spending on roads and other needed infrastructure. But, he also has called for more border agents and a wall between the U.S and Mexico.

除了对企业大幅减税,川普还提出在道路和其它必要基础设施上投入大量资金。但是他也呼吁聘用更多的边境巡逻人员,以及在美国和墨西哥之间修一堵墙。

I’m Mario Ritter.

Words in This Story

consumer confidence – n. a measure of how people think the economy will perform in the future

tariff – n. a tax on products imported or exported from a country

optimistic – adj. believing the future will be good

outlook – n. The way that people think about something, often the future

globalization – n. a process making trade and other important activities easier to do internationally, the increasing integration of countries and markets