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扎瓦希里接管基地组织后前景如何

来源:慢速英语   时间:2011-06-19 10:27:09

The elevation of Ayman al-Zawahri to take the leadership of al-Qaida was expected by counterterrorism analysts. He had been deputy to al-Qaida’s slain leader, Osama bin Laden. But the organization he inherits is far different than the one that first came to worldwide attention 10 years ago. And there are questions about whether he has the requisite leadership skills.

扎瓦希里晋升成基地组织的新领导人,其实是在反恐分析人士的预料中。他过去是遭击毙的基地组织领导人本拉登的副手。不过,他继承的组织跟那个十年前首次受到举世关注的组织已大不相同,而各界对他是否具备必要的领导能力存有疑虑。

After leaving an Egyptian prison in 1984, Ayman al-Zawahri joined with Osama bin Laden and was present for the birth of al-Qaida four years later.

扎瓦希里1984年在埃及出狱后,加入了本拉登的行列,并在四年后见证了基地组织的诞生。

Brian Fishman, an expert on al-Qaida at the New America Foundation, says that longevity is al-Zawahri’s biggest asset as he takes the reins of the worlds’ most notorious terrorist organization.

新美国基金会研究基地组织的专家费舍曼说,扎瓦希里接下了这个世界最恶名昭彰的恐怖组织,他的最大优势是长寿。

"But at the end of the day every organization needs to know where it came from, and Zawahri’s one of those guys that knows for al-Qaida, and I think that is a real strength. As a leader he gets a lot of respect because he’s been there through all of the trials and tribulations that that group has undergone and has been seen as sort of bin Laden’s right-hand man through that time. So I think that that’s his biggest strength, is just duration", Fishman said.

费舍曼说,“所有组织在一天的结束时必须知道自己创立的由来,扎瓦希里正是熟悉基地组织的人其中之一。我想那是个真正的优势。身为一名领导人,他很受到尊敬,他经历了那个组织所有的考验和磨难,并在那时被视为本拉登的左右手。所以我想这是他最大的优势,就是活得够久。”

But the organization he takes over is far different than the one he joined and that gained notoriety with its spectacular terrorist attacks in the United States of September 11, 2001.

但是,他承接的组织和他当初加入、那个在2001年9月11日恐怖攻击美国而恶名昭彰的组织已经很不一样了。

The main difference is the proliferation of al-Qaida so-called “franchises.” These groups in North Africa and the Middle East share the al-Qaida name and nominally share the same ideology as the original parent organization. But Emile Nakhleh, former chief of the Central Intelligence Agency’s political Islam strategic analysis program, says they do not necessarily share the same goals of worldwide jihad against the West.

主要的不同点在于基地组织繁衍出的所谓的“加盟组织”。这些在北非和中东的团体打着基地组织的名号,名义上也和原生组织的意识形态相同。但是,中央情报局政治伊斯兰战略分析项目的前主任纳克勒说,他们在对西方的全球圣战上不一定有着相同目标。

"So whether in Yemen or around Yemen, or in Somalia, or in Saudi (Arabia), or in North Africa, or in Iraq, they tend to be localized. And their agendas, while ideologically in tune with the global jihadist ideology of al-Qaida, their operations and their targets and their grievances are local," Nakhleh said.

他说,“所以无论是在也门或也门附近、或索马里、沙特阿拉伯、北非、伊拉克,他们都会朝地方化发展。他们的议题,意识形态上和基地组织的全球圣战弹同样的调,但他们的行动、目标、以及不满都是地方化的。”

He adds that the local franchises have also been undercut by the wave of protests in the Middle East, dubbed the “Arab spring.”

"The protests are pushing pragmatic agendas, not ideological agendas. All these movements are not beholden to radicalism, are not beholden to al-Qaida. And al-Qaida Central has really lost that luster that it used to have years back. And so in a sense al-Zawahri, regardless of his strength, is not going to be able to salvage al-Qaida," Nakhleh said.

他说,“那些抗议推动的议题都很务实,而不是意识形态。所有这些运动都跟极端主义、基地组织没关系。基地中央失去了它几年前有过的光荣。这样来说,扎瓦希里就算再有优势,还是无法拯救基地组织。”

Fishman points out that bin Laden was a charismatic firebrand whose videos were compelling to his followers, full of rhetorical and poetic flourishes.

费舍曼指出,本拉登是个有魅力的煽动者,他的录像充满了修辞和富有诗意的词汇,很能吸引他的追随者。

"A communicator in al-Qaida needs to establish a number of bona fides, right? They need to say, well, I’ve been through the fire and been shot at and I’ve been on the front line kind of guy. They need to demonstrate a certain level of efficiency with the religious stuff, historical and religious knowledge. And then, like every leader, they’ve got to have a certain sort of pizzaz that gets people excited. And bin Laden was able to do that," he said.

他说,“身为基地组织的传播者需要建立一些诚信,对吧?他们得说,喔,我经历了战火、曾经被击中、我上过前线。他们得用宗教来展示某些程度的效率,以及历史和宗教知识。就像所有领导人,他们必须有能振奋人心的特质。这些本拉登都做到了。”

Echoing Fishman and other analysts, Nakhleh says al-Zawahri is a pale imitation of his predecessor.

纳克勒和费舍曼及其他分析人士的说法一样,他说,扎瓦希里只是他前任的低劣仿效品。

"The last speech he gave, the so-called eulogy of bin Laden, he tried to imitate bin Laden by reciting poetry. Well, when I watched that speech that he came across rather stiff, whereas bin Laden would recite poetry, Arabic poetry, and Arabic history very convincingly to his audiences," Nakhleh said.

纳克勒说,“扎瓦希里上次的讲话是对本拉登的悼词,他试图模仿本拉登朗诵诗词。当我看那个演讲时,他表现得很僵硬,但本拉登却能向他的观众很有说服力地念诗、阿拉伯诗和阿拉伯历史。”

Bin Laden was from Saudi Arabia, and analysts say there was tension between the Gulf Arabs of al-Qaida - who provided much of the financing - and other jihadists. Fishman says al-Zawahri has been a divisive figure, despite his closeness to bin Laden.

本拉登来自沙特阿拉伯,分析人士说,基地组织里来自波斯湾地区的阿拉伯人和其他圣战份子间的关系紧张。波斯湾阿拉伯人提供了大半的资金。费舍曼说,尽管扎瓦希里和本拉登很亲密,但他是个引起纷争的人物。

"He’s sort of the guy who’s always reaching for something more and doesn’t quite have it. And that’s part of what’s been the knock on him, that he’s been somebody that always saw himself as the person that should be the leader, and that he was always sort of the climber and wasn’t as necessarily focused on the overall organization as he was with his own interests, whether they be personal or the focus on Egypt at the expense of other places," Fishman said.

费舍曼说,“他是那种永远要更多东西、却无法拥有的人。那是他受批评的部分原因。他是那种觉得自己应该要当领导人的人,他一直想往上爬,也不放心思在整个组织上,他只关心自己个人的利益,或牺牲其他地方获取给埃及好处。”

But analysts add that al-Zawahri is smart enough to learn from al-Qaida’s mistakes. In 2005 he warned the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, against excessive violence, saying the pictures of decapitations in the media undermine public support for jihad. Al-Zarqawi was killed by American troops the next year. But outgoing CIA director Leon Panetta said Thursday there are still an estimated 1000 al-Qaida fighters still in Iraq.

不过分析人士补充说,扎瓦希里很聪明,会从基地组织的错误中获取教训。在2005年,他警告伊拉克基地组织领导人扎卡维不要过度使用暴力,他说,媒体上的斩首照片会让公众不想支持圣战。扎卡维隔年被美军打死。但即将卸任的中情局局长帕内塔星期四说,估计伊拉克境内还有一千名基地组织战士。