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[翻译]Economics Report - Aging Will Reduce Economic Growth Worldwide in Coming Decades

来源:慢速英语   时间:2014-09-19 11:47:32

From VOA Learning English, this is the Economics Report.

这里是美国之音慢速英语经济报道。

The world is getting older. As more people retire each year, fewer working-age people will be there to replace them. This has effects not only in the work place but in the world finance. The bond rating agency Moody's says the aging population will lead to a drop in household savings. This could mean that total investments will fall and economic growth could slow.

世界正在变老。随着每年越来越多人退休,能够替代他们的劳动力也越来越少,这不仅已经影响到工作场所,还影响到了世界金融。债券评级机构穆迪表示,人口老龄化将导致居民储蓄下降。这可能意味着全球总投资额将下降,经济增长可能放缓。

Some reports have described Japan, Italy and Germany as the world's "Super Aged" nations. That is the name for countries in which at least 20 percent of the population is at least 65 years old.

有报道称日本、意大利和德国是世界超高龄国家。超高龄国家是指那些至少有20%的人口已经至少65岁的国家。

Elena Duggar is head of Moody's Sovereign Risk Division. She says changes in many populations are taking place quickly.

艾琳娜·达格(Elena Duggar)是穆迪主权风险部门的负责人。她说许多人口族群正在快速改变。

"The demographic transition is upon us now and its progressing, by historical standards, quite rapidly," Duggar said.

达格:“人口结构转型现在正在逼近,按历史标准来衡量,其进程相当迅猛。”

In five years, six more countries will join the list of "Super Aged" nations. And 34 nations will be super aged by the year 2030.

在五年内,6个以上的国家将加入超高龄国家的行列。到2030年还有34个国家也将成为超高龄国家。

Elena Duggar says this will have a big influence on labor and savings.

达格表示,这将对劳动力和储蓄产生巨大影响。

"That will translate into reductions in labor supply. At the same time aging means that the household savings rates will go down, which will negatively impact on investment. Both trends put together would mean that aging will have a significant negative impact on global growth," Duggar said.

达格:“这将进而演变为劳动力供给减少。与此同时,老龄化意味着家庭储蓄率将会下降,这将对投资产生负面影响。两大趋势叠加意味着老龄化将对全球增长产生显著负面影响。”

The Conference Board reports on business conditions around the world. It says an aging population could reduce world economic growth by one percent in the next ten years.

美国经济咨商局就全球的商业状况进行报告。它表示,未来十年人口老龄化可能会使世界经济增长降低1%。

Kishore Kulkarni is with the Metropolitan State University of Denver. He says immigration is one way to reduce the effects of an aging population. Older adults spend money differently than younger ones. And experts say that difference affects the economies of countries.

纪肖尔·库尔卡尼(Kishore Kulkarni)在丹佛大都会州立大学工作。他说,移民是降低人口老龄化影响的一种办法。老年人花钱不同于年轻人。专家们说,这种差异会影响到国家经济。

But Kishore Kulkarni believes that specialized career training and productivity gains from technology could make up for the drop in the number of workers. He says the problems of an aging population represent only a mismatching or misalignment of the demand for goods.

但库尔卡尼认为,专业职业培训和源于科技的生产率提高可以弥补工人数量的下降。他说,人口老龄化问题仅代表对商品需求的错位。

"It is a misalignment of demand rather than a total and a drastic change in the demand. And it is a challenge which we can easily accept and tackle as it comes to us," Kulkarni said.

库尔卡尔:“它是需求的一种错位,而不是需求的彻底变化和急剧变化。当它到来时,我们可以轻松接受并解决这一挑战。”

He also says that an aging population will be less of a problem in countries where older people are highly valued. And most experts agree that younger workers will have to work longer and retire later than today's older workers.

他还表示,人口老龄化对老年人高价值的国家来说问题不大。而多数专家认为,与如今的老员工相比,年轻员工将不得不工作更长时间并推迟退休。

And that's the Economics Report from VOA Learning English. For more Learning English programs, go to our website www.voanews.cn. And follow us on Facebook and Twitter. I'm Mario Ritter.